Compound Signal
Runoff Burden
Agricultural runoff + flood exposure × Uninsured rural population
50 counties are firing this signal at the elevated threshold (≥70/100) right now.
What it measures
Pattern after Hurricane Florence's 2018 inundation of 91 NC swine and 36 poultry CAFOs. Surfaces counties where concentrated-animal-feeding-operation density, flood exposure, and rural Medicaid coverage gaps converge. Top 5 are MN/MO/IA/KY/SD pork-belt counties.
Component breakdown
Each component is independently percentile-ranked against all US counties (0–100), then blended into the final signal score using the weights below.
| Component | Weight | Source |
|---|---|---|
| CAFO density rank | TBD | USDA Census of Ag + EPA AU formula (40 CFR §122.23) |
| Flood exposure | TBD | Lynch / Parks 2025 (pending #76) |
| Rural Medicaid coverage gap | TBD | Census ACS + Census urban-rural classification |
Evidence base
CAFO inundation events release manure-lagoon contents into surface and ground water. Florence 2018 flagged 110+ swine-lagoon failures in NC alone. The signal pairs that exposure with the rural Medicaid gap — rural counties with high uninsured rates have the least healthcare capacity to absorb a post-flood gastrointestinal-illness spike. NPDES federal-permit confidence varies by state (state-only program counties in IN, ID, AR are flagged because federal CAFO permit data is structurally absent; the index runs entirely off USDA Census head counts there).
EPA NPDES CAFO Rule
EPA 40 CFR §122.23 — CAFO definitions and permitting requirements under the Clean Water Act NPDES program.
USDA Census of Agriculture
USDA NASS Census of Agriculture (5-year cycle) — head-count and farm-size data used to derive animal-unit equivalents per county.
Coverage caveat
Flood-exposure leg currently uses a placeholder formulation pending Lynch/Parks 2025 ingestion (#76). Final weights and acceptance update when that lands.
Counties firing this signal
Top 50 counties at the elevated threshold (70/100) or above, sorted by score. Click any county for the full profile.
Related service line: respiratory. The platform tool exposes per-county service-line opportunity scores on Pro, Studio, and Enterprise tiers.
Methodology
Every Compound Signal on this platform is a versioned, weighted composite published transparently. See the full methodology — every weight, every threshold, every data source — on the methodology page.
View full methodology →